1713 plays 1712; the model splits it 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.7%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.68 to 1.54 says Inter, 0.90 to 0.98 says Real Madrid.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.54/0.90 and 1.68/0.98. Its rounded call is 2-2. 46.6% goes to Real Madrid, the model's lean. A 1-point spread sits between the two figures. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 59.4% and 40.6%. The leading outcome clears the second by 18.9 points. 2-2 leads the scorelines at 7.2% — not a strong call. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +213 and +212. With 59 and 53 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Someone wins 74.3% of the time by this model. The home side is rated higher. Played and finished 2-1. Goal expectation splits 2.23 to 2.05. Between best and worst outcome there is 20.9 points of daylight. Before kickoff our model had this at 50.1% / 24.9% / 25.0%. It landed.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Real Madrid edged past Inter 2-1 on 8 September 2026. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Real Madrid, set up by Brahim Diaz, to make it 1-0. Federico Valverde added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Real Madrid to make it 2-0. Carlos Augusto Lobaton pulled one back 77 minutes into the game for Inter, set up by Lautaro Martínez, to make it 1-2. Hakan Çalhanoğlu (39'), Dean Huijsen (79'), Lautaro Martínez (79') and Yann Aurel Bisseck (90') were booked.