SL Benfica 1–0 Alverca: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1725against1474

A 251-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Goal expectation

SL Benfica2.52

Alverca0.79

Expected share of the points

01
Prior record: 2-0-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in Primeira Liga. Today those sides rate 1725 and 1474, 251 apart, which resolves to 77.6% / 16.9% / 5.5%.
02
First to second is a 60.7-point step, SL Benfica over the draw. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 11.6%. Neither figure is thin: 54 and 44 matches respectively sit behind them. Raw profiles are 1.68 and 0.68 against 0.86 and 1.01. Rounded, that is 2-0. Between best and worst outcome there is 72.1 points of daylight. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Played and finished 1-0. Expected shares 86.0% against 14.0% on Elo. The model gives 83.1% to someone winning. 77.6% goes to SL Benfica, the model's lean. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +225 and -26. 251 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The xG line reads 2.52 to 0.79. The home side is rated higher. Neither component contradicts the other: SL Benfica leads 1.68-0.86 forward and 0.68-1.01 back.
03
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

SL Benfica edged past Alverca 1-0 on 2 November 2026.

Before the match

SL Benfica: four wins and one defeat over five games; 12 goals scored, five conceded. Santa Clara were their latest opponents, away on 26 October: a 2-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Moreirense on 9 September.

SL Benfica visited Santa Clara on 26 October (Primeira Liga) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Vitória SC travelled to face SL Benfica (Primeira Liga) on 11 October. For SL Benfica, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 1-3 was SL Benfica's result against Porto on 20 September (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; SL Benfica lost, with one scored to three conceded. The 13 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired SL Benfica with Gil Vicente. SL Benfica won 3-1 at home, netting three goals while conceding one. Playing away from home against Moreirense (Primeira Liga), SL Benfica finished 4-0 on 9 September. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition.

Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed SL Benfica 2nd after nine matches and 22 points.

Alverca: three wins and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, five conceded. Arouca were their latest opponents, at home on 24 October: a 1-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 away to Famalicão on 12 October.

Against Arouca in Primeira Liga, Alverca scored zero and conceded one on 24 October; the at home result was 0-1. Alverca's away from home game on 12 October (Primeira Liga) ended 4-1 against Famalicão, with four goals for and one against. On 19 September, Rio Ave faced Alverca in Primeira Liga: Alverca won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero. Primeira Liga, 12 September brought an away meeting with CD Nacional; Alverca won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Alverca hosted Braga on 5 September (Primeira Liga) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.

Before kickoff, Primeira Liga's results-based standings placed Alverca 10th after nine matches and 11 points.

The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 2-1 home win for SL Benfica on 8 February and a 2-1 away win for SL Benfica on 31 August 2025.

After the match

Vangelis Pavlidis opened the scoring from the penalty spot 51 minutes into the game for SL Benfica to make it 1-0. Yaya Bojang (15'), Chiquinho (58'), Ian Luccas (63') and Clément Lenglet (65') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have SL Benfica 251 points stronger than Alverca. SL Benfica won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 77.6%. The card tally for SL Benfica was one yellow card. SL Benfica made five changes. three yellow cards went to Alverca. The substitution total for Alverca was five. A clean sheet for SL Benfica.