6 meetings sit in the record, first in 2022, aggregate 3-6. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in Primeira Liga. The present numbers are 1386 against 1458, and the model turns that into 35.1% / 27.7% / 37.2%.
Both components point the same way, toward Santa Clara: 0.80 to 0.65 going forward, 0.90 to 1.09 going back. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the away side. Versus the 1500 seed: -114 and -42. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The xG line reads 0.87 to 1.18. The leading two outcomes sit 2.1 points apart, which is not a real preference. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Top of the distribution: Santa Clara, 37.2%. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 15.2%, clear of 1-1 on 13.2%. 72 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Raw profiles are 0.65 and 1.09 against 0.80 and 0.90. Someone wins 72.3% of the time by this model. The three outcomes sit within 9.5 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The tie closed out 0-1.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Casa Pia came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring three goals and conceding eight, failing to score in three of those games. A 2-1 win away to Estoril Praia (20 September) was their most recent result.
The 20 September fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Casa Pia with Estoril Praia. Casa Pia won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Porto (Primeira Liga), Casa Pia finished 1-4 on 12 September. Their score comprised one goal, against four from the opposition. 6 September: Casa Pia drew 0-0 against Vitória SC away from home in Primeira Liga, scoring zero goals and allowing zero. Against Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Casa Pia scored zero and conceded one on 30 August; the at home result was 0-1. Casa Pia's away from home game on 24 August (Primeira Liga) ended 0-2 against Gil Vicente, with zero goals for and two against.
Casa Pia stood 17th in the results-based Primeira Liga table before kickoff, with four points from seven matches.
Santa Clara were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring eight goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. A 0-0 draw at home to Braga (20 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Rio Ave on 6 September.
Primeira Liga, 20 September brought a home meeting with Braga; Santa Clara drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Santa Clara visited Arouca on 13 September (Primeira Liga) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Rio Ave travelled to face Santa Clara (Primeira Liga) on 6 September. For Santa Clara, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Santa Clara's result against Alverca on 29 August (Primeira Liga), playing away from home; Santa Clara drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 23 August fixture (Primeira Liga) paired Santa Clara with Famalicão. Santa Clara won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero.
Santa Clara stood 4th in the results-based Primeira Liga table before kickoff, with 15 points from seven matches.
Earlier results between these sides included a 0-0 draw at Casa Pia on 18 April and a 1-0 home win for Santa Clara on 6 December 2025.
After the match
Santa Clara edged past Casa Pia 1-0 on 10 October 2026. Vasconcelos opened the scoring in the 92nd minute for Santa Clara, set up by Lucas Soares, to make it 1-0. David Sousa (52') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them José Tavares (18'), Henrique Araujo (67'), Emanuel Fernandes (68'), Gabi Pereira (83'), Vasconcelos (90') and Geraldes (90'). Santa Clara are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form. The card tally for Casa Pia was three yellow cards and one red card. Casa Pia made five changes. Gabi Pereira was booked following entry for Casa Pia in the 72nd minute. Santa Clara: five yellow cards. Santa Clara made five changes. After coming on for Santa Clara in minute 57, Vasconcelos scored in minute 92 and was booked. Santa Clara finished with a clean sheet.