2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-2. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1463 and 1386, 77 apart, which resolves to 57.8% / 23.0% / 19.1%.
4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -37 and -114. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.6% — not a strong call. Result on the day: 1-2. The model's preferred outcome is Estoril Praia at 57.8%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 77 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Expected goals come out at 1.65 to 1.07. Estoril Praia sits 34.8 points above the next most likely result. Estoril Praia's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 69.4%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.22 and 0.65/1.09. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Neither figure is thin: 34 and 34 matches respectively sit behind them. The edge is split: Estoril Praia scores at the higher rate (1.02 to 0.65), Casa Pia concedes at the lower (1.09 to 1.22). Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Spread across the three results is 38.7 points.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Casa Pia edged past Estoril Praia 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Sierra Arnal (41') and David Sousa (62') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Estoril Praia slightly the stronger side, by 77 rating points over Casa Pia, even though it was Casa Pia who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Casa Pia only a 19.1% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Casa Pia won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.