Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1453 and 1418, 35 apart, which resolves to 51.7% / 24.5% / 23.8%.
Expected shares 64.0% against 36.0% on Elo. A 35-point difference on the rating scale. There is no trade-off to weigh: Alverca scores at the higher rate (0.78 to 0.75) and concedes at the lower (1.04 to 1.16). The four component numbers read 0.78, 1.04, 0.75, 1.16. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Top of the distribution: Alverca, 51.7%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Someone wins 75.5% of the time by this model. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.35 and 1.06. Alverca leads the distribution by 27.2 points over the draw. Spread across the three results is 27.9 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The tie closed out 1-0. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 12.9%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -47 and -82. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Alverca edged past Rio Ave 1-0 on 19 September 2026. Dawda Camara opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Alverca, set up by Chiquinho, to make it 1-0.