The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 2 to Sporting CP, 0 to Arouca, 0 drawn, 8-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PPL. The present numbers are 1728 against 1487, and the model turns that into 76.7% / 17.3% / 6.0%.
Final score: 2-2. Someone wins 82.7% of the time by this model. First to second is a 59.4-point step, Sporting CP over the draw. Both components point the same way, toward Sporting CP: 1.75 to 1.13 going forward, 0.70 to 1.15 going back. The distribution runs from 76.7% down to 6.0%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +228 and -13. Both figures rest on decent samples, 47 and 34 matches. The higher-rated side expects 85.3% of the points; the other side 14.7%. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.98 and 1.08. Point estimate: 2-1. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Attack/defence pairs: 1.75/0.70 and 1.13/1.15. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 76.7% goes to Sporting CP, the model's lean. 241 points of rating separation. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.3%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2-2 on 19 September 2026. Gonçalo Inácio opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Sporting CP, set up by Maximiliano Araújo, to make it 1-0. Luis Suárez added to the tally in the 17th minute for Sporting CP, set up by Ivan Fresneda, to make it 2-0. José Fontán pulled one back from the penalty spot late on, in the 81st minute for Arouca to make it 1-2. Dylan Nandín levelled it late on, in the 87th minute for Arouca, set up by Pedro Santos, to make it 2-2. Zeno Debast (54') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Espen van Ee (36'), Javi Sánchez (44'), José Fontán (51'), Luis Suárez (61'), Pedro Santos (61') and Eduardo Quaresma (80'). Dylan Nandín scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Sporting CP 241 points stronger than Arouca. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. Sporting CP are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Primeira Liga 2025/26, Primeira Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.