Prior record: 0-2-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-PPL. The present numbers are 1487 against 1458, and the model turns that into 50.8% / 24.7% / 24.5%.
A 26.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.13 to 0.80 says Arouca, 0.90 to 1.15 says Santa Clara. Most likely single result is Arouca on 50.8%. Someone wins 75.3% of the time by this model. The four component numbers read 1.13, 1.15, 0.80, 0.90. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 34 and 34 rated matches respectively. The underlying goal expectation is 1.52 for Arouca, 1.24 for Santa Clara. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Rating separation comes to 29 points. Between best and worst outcome there is 26.3 points of daylight. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.9%. Its point estimate is 1-1. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -13 and -42. The higher rating expects 63.2% of the points, the lower 36.8%. Final score: 1-2. The home side is rated higher.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Santa Clara edged past Arouca 2-1 on 13 September 2026. Gonçalo Paciência opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Santa Clara, set up by José Tavares, to make it 1-0. José Tavares added to the tally in the 36th minute for Santa Clara, set up by Pedro Pacheco, to make it 2-0. Barbero pulled one back 46 minutes into the game for Arouca, set up by Naïs Djouahra, to make it 1-2. Sorriso (85') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Emanuel Fernandes (33'), Naïs Djouahra (54'), Vasco Seabra (64'), Espen van Ee (65'), Tiago Ribeiro (65') and Pedro Ferreira (72'). Our current Elo ratings make Arouca slightly the stronger side, by 29 rating points over Santa Clara, even though it was Santa Clara who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Santa Clara only a 24.5% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Santa Clara are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. Santa Clara won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.