On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 1-1 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-PPL. History aside, the live ratings of 1437 and 1453 drive a 43.9% / 26.3% / 29.8% distribution.
Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Neither component contradicts the other: CD Nacional leads 0.80-0.78 forward and 0.90-1.04 back. The model gives 73.7% to someone winning. CD Nacional carries the largest share, 43.9%. Most and least likely outcomes are 17.6 points apart. The scoreline spread is even — 1-0 on 13.9% leads, but only just. Alverca's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.0%. Final score: 1-3. The gap between first and second outcome is 14.1 points, CD Nacional ahead of Alverca. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -63 and -47. With 34 and 34 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. In absolute terms: CD Nacional 0.80/0.90, Alverca 0.78/1.04 on attack and defence. The away side is rated higher. A 16-point difference on the rating scale. The underlying goal expectation is 1.25 for CD Nacional, 0.95 for Alverca.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Alverca beat CD Nacional 3-1 on 12 September 2026. Francisco Chissumba opened the scoring in the 34th minute for Alverca, set up by Chiquinho, to make it 1-0. Dawda Camara added to the tally in the 36th minute for Alverca, set up by Diogo Spencer, to make it 2-0. Dawda Camara added to the tally in the 42nd minute for Alverca, set up by Diogo Spencer, to make it 3-0. Matchoi Djaló got one back late on, in the 81st minute for CD Nacional to make it 1-3. Yaya Bojang (18'), Dawda Camara (48') and Diogo Spencer (73') were booked. Matchoi Djaló scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Alverca only a 29.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. On current ratings the model puts Alverca at around 0.95 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here. CD Nacional's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats.