Prior record: 2-0-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 3-0 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1680 and 1440, 240 apart, which resolves to 76.6% / 17.3% / 6.1%.
Result on the day: 2-1. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +180 and -60. Point estimate: 1-0. The home side is rated higher. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Raw profiles are 1.23 and 0.63 against 0.72 and 1.07. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 14.9% — not a strong call. Win-or-lose totals 82.7%; the draw takes the rest. Porto sits 59.3 points above the next most likely result. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Neither figure is thin: 35 and 34 matches respectively sit behind them. A 240-point difference on the rating scale. Porto holds both halves of the profile — 1.23 against 0.72 for scoring, 0.63 against 1.07 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 76.6% goes to Porto, the model's lean. By expected share of the points: 85.3% and 14.7%. The three results cover 70.5 points. Expected goals sit at 1.95 against 0.62.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Porto edged past Moreirense 2-1 on 4 September 2026. Dinis Pinto opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Moreirense, set up by João Veloso, to make it 1-0. Jan Bednarek levelled it in the 37th minute for Porto, set up by William da Silva, to make it 1-1. William da Silva put Porto in front 58 minutes into the game, set up by Pepê, to make it 2-1. Guilherme Liberato (90') was sent off. João Veloso (44'), Moura (63') and Dinis Pinto (68') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Porto 240 points stronger than Moreirense. On current ratings the model favours Porto at 76.6% in this pairing, and Porto won this one.