2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 6-2. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Currently 1728 against 1437 — a 80.8% / 15.5% / 3.6% split.
5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 291 points of rating separation. Raw profiles are 1.75 and 0.70 against 0.80 and 0.90. There is no trade-off to weigh: Sporting CP scores at the higher rate (1.75 to 0.80) and concedes at the lower (0.70 to 0.90). The xG line reads 2.35 to 0.76. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The single-scoreline output is 2-0. The tie closed out 2-0. Behind them are 47 and 34 rated matches. First to second is a 65.3-point step, Sporting CP over the draw. 80.8% goes to Sporting CP, the model's lean. 2-0 leads the scorelines at 12.3% — not a strong call. Between best and worst outcome there is 77.2 points of daylight. Elo expected shares: 88.6% and 11.4%. The model gives 84.4% to someone winning. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +228 and -63.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Sporting CP beat CD Nacional 2-0 on 5 September 2026. Luis Suárez opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 32nd minute for Sporting CP to make it 1-0. Flávio Gonçalves added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Sporting CP, set up by Luis Suárez, to make it 2-0. Maximiliano Araújo (5'), Sergi Altimira (20') and Markus Jensen (48') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Sporting CP 291 points stronger than CD Nacional. On current ratings the model favours Sporting CP at 80.8% in this pairing, and Sporting CP won this one. Sporting CP are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Primeira Liga 2025/26, Primeira Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27. CD Nacional's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats.