On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-PPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1401 and 1572 — 171 points — for a 23.0% / 24.3% / 52.7% split.
Expected goals come out at 0.85 to 1.48. Top of the distribution: Famalicão, 52.7%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -99 and +72. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 0.83/1.19 and 0.93/0.69. Its rounded call is 0-1. 171 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. By expected share of the points: 35.2% and 64.8%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. First to second is a 28.4-point step, Famalicão over the draw. It ended 2-2. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Neither figure is thin: 34 and 34 matches respectively sit behind them. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 14.4%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Famalicão scores at the higher rate (0.93 to 0.83) and concedes at the lower (0.69 to 1.19). The distribution runs from 52.7% down to 23.0%. Someone wins 75.7% of the time by this model.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Amadora and Famalicão drew 2-2 on 5 September 2026. Georgios Koutsias opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Famalicão, set up by Mathias De Amorin, to make it 1-0. Leandro Antonetti levelled it 57 minutes into the game for Amadora, set up by Beni Souza, to make it 1-1. Max Scholze put Amadora in front 69 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Georgios Koutsias levelled it from the penalty spot 80 minutes into the game for Famalicão to make it 2-2. Pepa (90') was sent off. Max Scholze (29'), Robinho (53'), Marcos Peña (66'), Leny Meyer (90') and David Grilo (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Famalicão 171 points stronger than Amadora. Famalicão are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.