On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 0-8 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-5 in comp-fd-PPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1453 and 1592 — 139 points — for a 26.7% / 25.4% / 47.9% split.
47.9% goes to Braga, the model's lean. The xG line reads 1.02 to 1.82. Elo expected shares: 39.5% and 60.5%. Braga holds a 21.2-point edge on the next outcome. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.78, 1.04, 1.29, 0.88. Braga holds both halves of the profile — 1.29 against 0.78 for scoring, 0.88 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Someone wins 74.6% of the time by this model. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.8%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 139 points. Final score: 1-2. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -47 and +92. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.