Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 1-0-1 from Estoril Praia's side on wins, 6-6 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-PPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1463 and 1487 — 24 points — for a 42.6% / 26.6% / 30.8% split.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/1.22 and 1.13/1.15. The three results cover 16.0 points. A 11.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. It ended 0-0. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The higher rating expects 44.1% of the points, the lower 55.9%. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.8%. Scorelines above 8%: 2. xG: 1.74 to 1.87. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. A 24-point spread sits between the two figures. Arouca is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 1.02 in attack, 1.15 to 1.22 in defence. The model's preferred outcome is Estoril Praia at 42.6%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -37 and -13.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Estoril Praia and Arouca could not be separated in a goalless draw on 7 September 2026. Antef Tsoungui (30'), Ferro (45'), Jordan Arnolin (71'), João Carvalho (72') and Brian Mansilla (86') were booked.