2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-3. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1386 and 1440 — 54 points — for a 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7% split.
There is no trade-off to weigh: Moreirense scores at the higher rate (0.72 to 0.65) and concedes at the lower (1.07 to 1.09). Top of the distribution: Casa Pia, 37.7%. Only 3.0 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 13.5%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -114 and -60. The away side is rated higher. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Distance between the ratings: 54 points, moderate on this scale. Expected shares 51.6% against 48.4% on Elo. Its point estimate is 1-1. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 34 and 34 rated matches respectively. The three outcomes sit within 10.1 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Moreirense edged past Casa Pia 1-0 on 30 August 2026. Kiko opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Moreirense, set up by João Veloso, to make it 1-0. Pedro Rosas (61'), Kiko (62') and Rodri Alonso (71') were booked.