The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2026: 2 to SL Benfica, 0 to Estoril Praia, 0 drawn, 6-2 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 3-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Currently 1688 against 1463 — a 75.2% / 17.9% / 6.9% split.
No scoreline stands out; 2-1 only leads on 8.9%. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. A decisive result carries 82.1% against 17.9% for the draw. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. Expected goals sit at 2.74 against 1.05. Elo expected shares: 84.1% and 15.9%. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +188 and -37. The gap between first and second outcome is 57.3 points, SL Benfica ahead of the draw. The model's preferred outcome is SL Benfica at 75.2%. Neither component contradicts the other: SL Benfica leads 1.51-1.02 forward and 0.76-1.22 back. It ended 2-1. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Distance between the ratings: 225 points, wide on this scale. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 34 matches respectively sit behind them. A 68.3-point range top to bottom. The four component numbers read 1.51, 0.76, 1.02, 1.22.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
SL Benfica edged past Estoril Praia 2-1 on 31 August 2026. Vangelis Pavlidis opened the scoring in the 40th minute for SL Benfica, set up by Rafa Silva, to make it 1-0. Clément Lenglet added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for SL Benfica, set up by Tomas Araujo, to make it 2-0. Yanis Begraoui pulled one back late on, in the 82nd minute for Estoril Praia, set up by Fernando Medrano, to make it 1-2. Sierra Arnal (75') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have SL Benfica 225 points stronger than Estoril Praia. On current ratings the model favours SL Benfica at 75.2% in this pairing, and SL Benfica won this one.