Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1437 and 1401, 36 apart, which resolves to 51.9% / 24.5% / 23.6%.
Point estimate: 1-1. CD Nacional holds a 27.4-point edge on the next outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.41 and 1.02. Elo expected shares: 64.1% and 35.9%. Behind them are 34 and 34 rated matches. Higher rating: the home side. The rating gap itself is 36 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. CD Nacional carries the largest share, 51.9%. Final score: 2-3. Each side owns one half of the argument — Amadora the scoring rate at 0.83, CD Nacional the conceding rate at 0.90. A 28.3-point range top to bottom. In absolute terms: CD Nacional 0.80/0.90, Amadora 0.83/1.19 on attack and defence. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.7% — not a strong call. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -63 and -99.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Amadora edged past CD Nacional 3-2 on 30 August 2026. Wesley opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for CD Nacional, set up by William Kokolo, to make it 1-0. Ianis Stoica levelled it from the penalty spot 46 minutes into the game for Amadora to make it 1-1. Abraham Marcus put Amadora in front 62 minutes into the game, set up by Eddy Doué, to make it 2-1. Pablo Ruan levelled it 66 minutes into the game for CD Nacional, set up by Liziero, to make it 2-2. Amadora regained the lead through Leandro Antonetti late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Eddy Doué, to make it 3-2. Zé Vitor (45'), William Kokolo (48') and Leandro Antonetti (86') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make CD Nacional slightly the stronger side, by 36 rating points over Amadora, even though it was Amadora who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Amadora only a 23.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. CD Nacional's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats. Amadora won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.