Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Currently 1458 against 1572 — a 29.9% / 26.3% / 43.8% split.
0-1 tops the scoreline distribution on 16.1%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 43.0% to 57.0%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. First to second is a 13.9-point step, Famalicão over Santa Clara. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -42 and +72. The two ratings differ by 114 points. The three results cover 17.5 points. The match finished 1-0. 43.8% goes to Famalicão, the model's lean. Neither figure is thin: 34 and 34 matches respectively sit behind them. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Both components point the same way, toward Famalicão: 0.93 to 0.80 going forward, 0.69 to 0.90 going back. The underlying goal expectation is 0.82 for Santa Clara, 1.13 for Famalicão. Raw profiles are 0.80 and 0.90 against 0.93 and 0.69. Rounded, that is 0-1. Win-or-lose totals 73.7%; the draw takes the rest.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Santa Clara edged past Famalicão 1-0 on 23 August 2026. Gonçalo Paciência opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Santa Clara, set up by Sorriso, to make it 1-0. Vinícius (27'), Leonardo Realpe (75') and Mathias De Amorin (80') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Famalicão clearly the stronger side, by 114 rating points over Santa Clara, even though it was Santa Clara who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Santa Clara only a 29.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Santa Clara are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. Famalicão are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Santa Clara won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.