2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 5-2. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PPL. Against that, current ratings read 1463 and 1418, a 45-point margin, and the model splits the tie 53.2% / 24.2% / 22.6%.
The home side is rated higher. Behind them are 34 and 34 rated matches. The four component numbers read 1.02, 1.22, 0.75, 1.16. Someone wins 75.8% of the time by this model. A 45-point difference on the rating scale. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 10.9%. Expected goals sit at 1.76 against 1.24. First to second is a 29.0-point step, Estoril Praia over the draw. Versus the 1500 seed: -37 and -82. Expected shares 65.3% against 34.7% on Elo. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Rounded, that is 1-1. The edge is split: Estoril Praia scores at the higher rate (1.02 to 0.75), Rio Ave concedes at the lower (1.16 to 1.22). These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Result on the day: 0-2. Estoril Praia carries the largest share, 53.2%. The distribution runs from 53.2% down to 22.6%.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Rio Ave beat Estoril Praia 2-0 on 22 August 2026. Fernando Medrano (68') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Estoril Praia slightly the stronger side, by 45 rating points over Rio Ave, even though it was Rio Ave who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Rio Ave only a 22.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.