On record: 2 meetings from 2026, 2-3 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PPL. The live ratings are 1434 and 1437, giving 46.0% / 25.8% / 28.2%.
Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The rating gap itself is 3 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Vitória SC 0.87/1.14, CD Nacional 0.80/0.90 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -66 and -63. Expected goals 1.16-1.23. On the Elo curve they expect 58.8% and 41.2% of the points. Result on the day: 1-0. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 13.1% leads, but only just. Vitória SC leads the distribution by 17.8 points over CD Nacional. Scorelines above 8%: 5. One edge each: scoring to Vitória SC (0.87 v 0.80), conceding to CD Nacional (0.90 v 1.14). The model gives 74.2% to someone winning. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. 46.0% goes to Vitória SC, the model's lean. Point estimate: 1-1.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Vitória SC edged past CD Nacional 1-0 on 23 August 2026. Gustavo Silva opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Vitória SC, set up by Miguel Nogueira, to make it 1-0. Goncalo Nogueira (28'), Miguel Nogueira (38') and Daniel Jr. (90') were booked. CD Nacional's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats.