2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 6-1. The latest was 2026, 4-1 in comp-fd-PPL. The live ratings are 1728 and 1453, giving 79.6% / 16.1% / 4.3%.
A 75.3-point range top to bottom. The gap between first and second outcome is 63.5 points, Sporting CP ahead of the draw. By expected share of the points: 87.6% and 12.4%. The scoreline spread is even — 2-0 on 11.6% leads, but only just. 83.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Sporting CP holds both halves of the profile — 1.75 against 0.78 for scoring, 0.70 against 1.04 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 275 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The match finished 3-1. The home side is rated higher. On expected goals the model has it 2.72 against 0.74. 79.6% goes to Sporting CP, the model's lean. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +228 and -47. The four component numbers read 1.75, 0.70, 0.78, 1.04. Point estimate: 2-0. Scorelines above 8%: 4.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Sporting CP beat Alverca 3-1 on 22 August 2026. Maximiliano Araújo opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Sporting CP to make it 1-0. Matheus Mendes (an own goal) added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Sporting CP to make it 2-0. Luis Suárez added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Sporting CP, set up by Geny Catamo, to make it 3-0. Lucas Figueiredo got one back late on, in the 88th minute for Alverca, set up by Vasco Moreira, to make it 1-3. Yaya Bojang (16'), Geny Catamo (22'), Davy Gui (39') and Marco Essimi Ataba (74') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Sporting CP 275 points stronger than Alverca. On current ratings the model favours Sporting CP at 79.6% in this pairing, and Sporting CP won this one. Sporting CP are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Primeira Liga 2025/26, Primeira Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.