On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 0-5 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PPL. History aside, the live ratings of 1463 and 1572 drive a 30.5% / 26.5% / 43.1% distribution.
Elo expected shares: 43.7% and 56.3%. Most likely single result is Famalicão on 43.1%. Expected goals 1.04-1.53. Higher rating: the away side. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Ratings sit 109 apart. In absolute terms: Estoril Praia 1.02/1.22, Famalicão 0.93/0.69 on attack and defence. Outcomes span 16.6 points. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.2% — not a strong call. The gap between first and second outcome is 12.6 points, Famalicão ahead of Estoril Praia. Versus the 1500 seed: -37 and +72. The edge is split: Estoril Praia scores at the higher rate (1.02 to 0.93), Famalicão concedes at the lower (0.69 to 1.22). It ended 1-1. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Someone wins 73.6% of the time by this model. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Estoril Praia and Famalicão drew 1-1 on 7 August 2026. Georgios Koutsias opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Famalicão, set up by Gil Dias, to make it 1-0. Yanis Begraoui levelled it 72 minutes into the game for Estoril Praia, set up by Pedro Carvalho, to make it 1-1. Ricard Sánchez (53'), Rodrigo Pinheiro (76') and Romeo Beney (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Famalicão 109 points stronger than Estoril Praia. Famalicão are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.