On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1440 and 1592, 152 apart, which resolves to 25.3% / 25.0% / 49.8%.
Braga is ahead on each half — 1.29 to 0.72 in attack, 0.88 to 1.07 in defence. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The ratings draw on 34 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-1 on 11.2%. The rating gap itself is 152 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The model's preferred outcome is Braga at 49.8%. Expected goals come out at 0.94 to 1.87. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -60 and +92. As a single number the model says 0-1. The higher rating expects 62.3% of the points, the lower 37.7%. The tie closed out 2-2. Braga sits 24.5 points above the next most likely result. In absolute terms: Moreirense 0.72/1.07, Braga 1.29/0.88 on attack and defence. The distribution runs from 49.8% down to 25.0%. Higher rating: the away side. Scorelines above 8%: 4. 75.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Moreirense and Braga drew 2-2 on 9 August 2026. Fran Navarro opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Braga, set up by Vitor Carvalho, to make it 1-0. Nile John levelled it inside the first 8 minutes for Moreirense, set up by Alexandre Parsemain, to make it 1-1. Braga regained the lead through Pau Victor Delgado 66 minutes into the game, set up by Demir Tiknaz, to make it 2-1. João Veloso levelled it in the 91st minute for Moreirense to make it 2-2. Diogo Travassos (18'), Guilherme Liberato (20'), Kevyn Monteiro (45'), Nile John (61'), Gilberto Batista (78') and Pau Victor Delgado (90') were booked. Pau Victor Delgado and João Veloso scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Braga 152 points stronger than Moreirense.