On record: 2 meetings from 2026, 5-3 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-PPL. Today those sides rate 1458 and 1437, 21 apart, which resolves to 49.7% / 25.0% / 25.3%.
The three results cover 24.7 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. By expected share of the points: 62.1% and 37.9%. Ratings sit 21 apart. Versus the 1500 seed: -42 and -63. The component ratings barely separate them — 0.80 and 0.80 for scoring, 0.90 and 0.90 for conceding — so the model is not leaning on a stylistic mismatch here. The underlying goal expectation is 1.08 for Santa Clara, 0.98 for CD Nacional. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Someone wins 75.0% of the time by this model. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The leading outcome clears the second by 24.4 points. Result on the day: 2-2. In absolute terms: Santa Clara 0.80/0.90, CD Nacional 0.80/0.90 on attack and defence. Flat distribution — 1-0 tops it at just 13.8%. Behind them are 34 and 34 rated matches. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Santa Clara and CD Nacional drew 2-2 on 10 August 2026. Gonçalo Paciência opened the scoring in the 19th minute for Santa Clara to make it 1-0. Gonçalo Paciência added to the tally in the 21st minute for Santa Clara, set up by Diogo Calila, to make it 2-0. Liziero pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 36th minute for CD Nacional to make it 1-2. Miguel Baeza levelled it in the 45th minute for CD Nacional to make it 2-2. Vinícius (24'), Daniel (39'), Wesley (40') and Filipe Soares (70') were booked. All the scoring was done by half time. Santa Clara are unbeaten in the latest 7 matches of their recorded form. CD Nacional's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats.