Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-1-1 from Bremen's side on wins, 1-3 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-3 in comp-fd-BL1. Against that, current ratings read 1421 and 1490, a 69-point margin, and the model splits the tie 35.5% / 27.9% / 36.7%.
A 69-point difference on the rating scale. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 49.4% to 50.6%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. It ended 3-2. The forecast we stored before the match was 30.9% / 26.6% / 42.6%. The match did not follow it. Goal expectation splits 1.82 to 2.05. The top two outcomes are within 1.2 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Its point estimate is 1-2. 72.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -79 and -10. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.0%. 36.7% goes to Augsburg, the model's lean. All three results are bunched inside 8.8 points. Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/1.27 and 1.20/1.30.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Bremen edged past Augsburg 3-2 on 19 September 2026. Robin Fellhauer opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Augsburg, set up by Fabian Rieder, to make it 1-0. Calvin Brackelmann added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Augsburg, set up by Alexis Claude Maurice, to make it 2-0. Marco Grüll pulled one back 66 minutes into the game for Bremen, set up by Chuki, to make it 1-2. Niclas Füllkrug levelled it late on, in the 86th minute for Bremen to make it 2-2. Mitchell Weiser put Bremen in front in the 93rd minute, set up by Marco Grüll, to make it 3-2. Han-Noah Massengo (5'), Arthur Augusto (27'), Marco Grüll (60'), Manuel Baum (73') and Hennes Behrens (77') were booked. Mitchell Weiser scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Augsburg slightly the stronger side, by 69 rating points over Bremen, even though it was Bremen who won this one. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. Bremen won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.