The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to HSV, 1 to 1. FC Köln, 1 drawn, 2-5 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BL1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1408 and 1382 — 26 points — for a 50.4% / 24.8% / 24.8% split.
On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 26 points. HSV carries the largest share, 50.4%. Goal expectation splits 1.87 to 2.07. Win-or-lose totals 75.2%; the draw takes the rest. Attack/defence pairs: 0.84/1.46 and 1.05/1.50. Point estimate: 1-2. It ended 2-1. One half each — 1. FC Köln in front on 1.05, HSV behind on 1.46. HSV leads the distribution by 25.6 points over the draw. Elo expected shares: 62.8% and 37.2%. Logged in advance of kickoff — 48.3% / 25.3% / 26.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. No scoreline stands out; 1-2 only leads on 7.8%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Higher rating: the home side. Behind them are 38 and 38 rated matches. Most and least likely outcomes are 25.6 points apart. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -92 and -118.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
HSV edged past 1. FC Köln 2-1 on 19 September 2026. Nicolás Capaldo opened the scoring in the 44th minute for HSV, set up by Albert Gronbaek Erlykke, to make it 1-0. Yussuf Poulsen added to the tally 50 minutes into the game for HSV, set up by Albert Gronbaek Erlykke, to make it 2-0. Ragnar Ache pulled one back late on, in the 90th minute for 1. FC Köln, set up by Ellyes Skhiri, to make it 1-2. Albert Gronbaek Erlykke (10'), Gideon Mensah (54'), Ísak Jóhannesson (77') and Ellyes Skhiri (84') were booked. Yussuf Poulsen and Ragnar Ache scored after coming off the bench. HSV won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.