Prior record: 2-0-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 4-1 in comp-fd-BL1. The present numbers are 1626 against 1546, and the model turns that into 58.3% / 22.9% / 18.8%.
The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 7.8% leads, but only just. Higher rating: the home side. The model gives 77.1% to someone winning. Result on the day: 2-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.42/0.93 and 1.40/1.16. Goal expectation splits 2.45 to 1.77. Between best and worst outcome there is 39.5 points of daylight. Top of the distribution: Leverkusen, 58.3%. Versus the 1500 seed: +126 and +46. The rating gap itself is 80 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Leverkusen holds both halves of the profile — 1.42 against 1.40 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.16 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1. With 49 and 39 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 69.7% to 30.3%. Leverkusen holds a 35.4-point edge on the next outcome. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 2-0 on 20 September 2026. Patrik Schick opened the scoring in the 44th minute for Leverkusen, set up by Miguel Gutiérrez, to make it 1-0. Miguel Gutiérrez added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Leverkusen to make it 2-0. Antonio Nusa (11'), Neil El Aynaoui (74'), Edmond Tapsoba (81'), Benjamin Henrichs (90') and Afonso Moreira (90') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Leverkusen at 58.3% in this pairing, and Leverkusen won this one.