On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 6-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 4-0 in comp-fd-BL1. The present numbers are 1873 against 1419, and the model turns that into 87.7% / 11.3% / 1.0%.
Recorded ahead of kickoff: 87.2% / 11.8% / 1.0%. It landed. Elo expected shares: 95.2% and 4.8%. Most and least likely outcomes are 86.7 points apart. Neither figure is thin: 51 and 37 matches respectively sit behind them. Goal expectation splits 6.52 to 1.24. Spread thin across outcomes, 6-1 highest at 5.6%. Its point estimate is 6-1. First to second is a 76.4-point step, Bayern over the draw. 87.7% goes to Bayern, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 2.70 and 0.93 against 0.98 and 1.63. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model gives 88.7% to someone winning. Rating separation comes to 454 points. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Bayern holds both halves of the profile — 2.70 against 0.98 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.63 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Bayern overwhelmed Union Berlin 7-0 on 18 September 2026. Jamal Musiala opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Bayern, set up by Alphonso Davies, to make it 1-0. Harry Kane added to the tally from the penalty spot in the 39th minute for Bayern to make it 2-0. Michael Olise added to the tally in the 43rd minute for Bayern, set up by Jamal Musiala, to make it 3-0. Harry Kane added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Michael Olise, to make it 4-0. Ismael Saibari added to the tally 70 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Alphonso Davies, to make it 5-0. Michael Olise added to the tally 73 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Tom Bischof, to make it 6-0. Michael Olise added to the tally 76 minutes into the game for Bayern, set up by Tom Bischof, to make it 7-0. Ohis Uduokhai (38'), Rani Khedira (42'), Dayot Upamecano (45') and Livan Burcu (78') were booked. Ismael Saibari scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Bayern 454 points stronger than Union Berlin. On current ratings the model favours Bayern at 87.7% in this pairing, and Bayern won this one. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Champions League 2025/26, Bundesliga 2025/26, Bundesliga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.