On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-2 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BL1. Currently 1514 against 1436 — a 58.0% / 23.0% / 19.0% split.
0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Mainz is ahead on each half — 1.30 to 1.23 in attack, 1.17 to 1.46 in defence. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. In absolute terms: Mainz 1.30/1.17, Frankfurt 1.23/1.46 on attack and defence. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +14 and -64. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 69.5% to 30.5%. The model's preferred outcome is Mainz at 58.0%. The gap between first and second outcome is 35.0 points, Mainz ahead of the draw. A 39.0-point range top to bottom. Its point estimate is 2-1. Both figures rest on decent samples, 37 and 46 matches. Before kickoff our model had this at 57.6% / 23.1% / 19.3%. That one did not come off. Final score: 1-3. Someone wins 77.0% of the time by this model. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 2-1 at 6.6%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Frankfurt beat Mainz 3-1 on 12 September 2026. Raphael Onyedika (41') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Mainz slightly the stronger side, by 78 rating points over Frankfurt, even though it was Frankfurt who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Frankfurt only a 19% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.