Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 2-0-0 in RB Leipzig's favour on wins, 4-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-BL1. Against that, current ratings read 1546 and 1408, a 138-point margin, and the model splits the tie 65.8% / 20.9% / 13.3%.
Expected goals sit at 3.04 against 1.31. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The distribution runs from 65.8% down to 13.3%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-1 on 7.9%. The higher rating expects 76.3% of the points, the lower 23.7%. Raw profiles are 1.40 and 1.16 against 0.84 and 1.46. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +46 and -92. A 138-point difference on the rating scale. 65.8% goes to RB Leipzig, the model's lean. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Its rounded call is 3-1. The ratings draw on 39 and 38 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Both components point the same way, toward RB Leipzig: 1.40 to 0.84 going forward, 1.16 to 1.46 going back. Before kickoff our model had this at 67.8% / 20.3% / 11.9%. That call matched the result.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
RB Leipzig overwhelmed HSV 5-0 on 13 September 2026. Tidiam Gomis opened the scoring in the 17th minute for RB Leipzig, set up by Ezechiel Banzuzi, to make it 1-0. Antonio Nusa added to the tally in the 28th minute for RB Leipzig to make it 2-0. Willi Orban added to the tally 72 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Antonio Nusa, to make it 3-0. Christopher Nkunku added to the tally 74 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig, set up by Antonio Nusa, to make it 4-0. Romulo Cruz added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for RB Leipzig to make it 5-0. Nicolás Capaldo (6'), Castello Lukeba (48') and Shafiq Nandja (71') were booked. Christopher Nkunku and Romulo Cruz scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have RB Leipzig 138 points stronger than HSV. On current ratings the model favours RB Leipzig at 65.8% in this pairing, and RB Leipzig won this one.