On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-3 in comp-fd-BL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1537 and 1590 drive a 38.0% / 27.6% / 34.4% distribution.
Behind them are 37 and 38 rated matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 34.0% / 27.4% / 38.6%. That one did not come off. A 3.6-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Most likely single result is Hoffenheim on 38.0%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The three outcomes sit within 10.4 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. Expected goals 2.38-2.59. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Ratings sit 53 apart. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +37 and +90. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-2 highest at 6.6%. The higher-rated side expects 48.3% of the points; the other side 51.7%. Someone wins 72.4% of the time by this model. Higher rating: the away side. As a single number the model says 2-2. Final score: 2-1. In absolute terms: Hoffenheim 1.31/1.30, Stuttgart 1.47/1.23 on attack and defence.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Hoffenheim edged past Stuttgart 2-1 on 12 September 2026. Adam Hložek opened the scoring inside the first 13 minutes for Hoffenheim, set up by Bambase Conte, to make it 1-0. Maximilian Mittelstädt levelled it 48 minutes into the game for Stuttgart to make it 1-1. Hoffenheim regained the lead through Adam Hložek 67 minutes into the game, set up by Adam Daghim, to make it 2-1. Wouter Burger (63') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make Stuttgart slightly the stronger side, by 53 rating points over Hoffenheim, even though it was Hoffenheim who won this one. Hoffenheim won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.