On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 5-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-1 in comp-fd-BL1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1590 and 1382 — 208 points — for a 73.6% / 18.4% / 8.0% split.
On the Elo curve, expected shares run 82.8% to 17.2%. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-1 on 6.8%. Result on the day: 4-1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Reduced to one result that is 3-1. In absolute terms: Stuttgart 1.47/1.23, 1. FC Köln 1.05/1.50 on attack and defence. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 208 points. xG: 3.29 to 1.73. A decisive result carries 81.6% against 18.4% for the draw. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is Stuttgart at 73.6%. Stuttgart holds a 55.2-point edge on the next outcome. Before kickoff our model had this at 76.3% / 17.5% / 6.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Both components point the same way, toward Stuttgart: 1.47 to 1.05 going forward, 1.23 to 1.50 going back. The three results cover 65.6 points.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Stuttgart comfortably beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 on 4 September 2026. Bilal El Khannouss opened the scoring in the 39th minute for Stuttgart, set up by Josha Vagnoman, to make it 1-0. Grischa Prömel added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Stuttgart, set up by Maximilian Mittelstädt, to make it 2-0. Ermedin Demirovic added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Stuttgart, set up by Finn Jeltsch, to make it 3-0. Ramon Hendriks (an own goal) got one back late on, in the 81st minute for 1. FC Köln to make it 1-3. Josha Vagnoman added to the tally late on, in the 90th minute for Stuttgart to make it 4-1. Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (42'), Maximilian Mittelstädt (51'), Tom Krauß (85') and Alessio Castro-Montes (86') were booked. Ermedin Demirovic and Ramon Hendriks scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Stuttgart 208 points stronger than 1. FC Köln. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Stuttgart at 73.6% in this pairing, and Stuttgart won this one.