On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 2-1 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-BL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1626 and 1419 drive a 73.5% / 18.5% / 8.0% distribution.
Someone wins 81.5% of the time by this model. Both components point the same way, toward Leverkusen: 1.42 to 0.98 going forward, 0.93 to 1.63 going back. Expected shares 82.7% against 17.3% on Elo. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Leverkusen carries the largest share, 73.5%. The forecast we stored before the match was 68.4% / 20.1% / 11.4%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 207 points of rating separation. Its rounded call is 3-1. The distribution runs from 73.5% down to 8.0%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +126 and -81. The match finished 4-0. Behind them are 49 and 37 rated matches. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 3-1 on 7.8%. On expected goals the model has it 3.44 against 1.24. Leverkusen sits 55.0 points above the next most likely result. The four component numbers read 1.42, 0.93, 0.98, 1.63.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Leverkusen overwhelmed Union Berlin 4-0 on 5 September 2026. Ohis Uduokhai (4') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Leverkusen 207 points stronger than Union Berlin. On current ratings the model favours Leverkusen at 73.5% in this pairing, and Leverkusen won this one.