Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 1-1-0 in Frankfurt's favour on wins, 2-1 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-BL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1436 and 1490 drive a 37.7% / 27.6% / 34.7% distribution.
No scoreline clear 8% individually. The top two outcomes are within 3.0 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. Result on the day: 1-4. The forecast we stored before the match was 37.8% / 27.6% / 34.6%. The result went the other way. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.39 and 2.37. Top of the distribution: Frankfurt, 37.7%. The model gives 72.4% to someone winning. Each side owns one half of the argument — Frankfurt the scoring rate at 1.23, Augsburg the conceding rate at 1.30. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 46 and 37 matches. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-2. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -64 and -10. Elo expected shares: 51.6% and 48.4%. Top to bottom the spread is only 10.1 points.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Augsburg comfortably beat Frankfurt 4-1 on 6 September 2026. Jonathan Burkardt opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Frankfurt, set up by Younes Ebnoutalib, to make it 1-0. Arijon Ibrahimovic levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Augsburg, set up by Marius Wolf, to make it 1-1. Robin Fellhauer put Augsburg in front 47 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Alexis Claude Maurice added to the tally 65 minutes into the game for Augsburg, set up by Han-Noah Massengo, to make it 3-1. Fabian Rieder added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Augsburg to make it 4-1. Noahkai Banks (36') and Keita Kosugi (45') were booked. Alexis Claude Maurice scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Augsburg are 54 points stronger than Frankfurt. Augsburg won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.