Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Bremen's side on wins, 1-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-BL1. Today those sides rate 1421 and 1546, 125 apart, which resolves to 28.5% / 25.9% / 45.6%.
Most likely single result is RB Leipzig on 45.6%. A 19.7-point range top to bottom. Scorelines above 8%: 1. A 125-point spread sits between the two figures. Neither component contradicts the other: RB Leipzig leads 1.40-0.94 forward and 1.16-1.27 back. The model gives 74.1% to someone winning. Expected shares 41.5% against 58.5% on Elo. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Goal expectation splits 1.62 to 2.41. First to second is a 17.1-point step, RB Leipzig over Bremen. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -79 and +46. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 8.4%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 19.6% / 23.2% / 57.2%. That one did not come off. In absolute terms: Bremen 0.94/1.27, RB Leipzig 1.40/1.16 on attack and defence. Played and finished 3-1. The ratings draw on 38 and 39 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Bremen beat RB Leipzig 3-1 on 5 September 2026. Eren Dinkci opened the scoring inside the first 4 minutes for Bremen, set up by Chuki, to make it 1-0. Niclas Füllkrug added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Bremen, set up by Marco Grüll, to make it 2-0. Marco Grüll added to the tally 80 minutes into the game for Bremen to make it 3-0. Ridle Baku got one back in the 95th minute for RB Leipzig, set up by Andrija Maksimović, to make it 1-3. Chuki (23') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make RB Leipzig clearly the stronger side, by 125 rating points over Bremen, even though it was Bremen who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Bremen only a 28.5% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. Bremen won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.