Prior record: 2-0-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BL1. Currently 1534 against 1421 — a 62.7% / 21.8% / 15.5% split.
78.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rounded, that is 2-1. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 37 and 38 rated matches respectively. The model's preferred outcome is Freiburg at 62.7%. A 40.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. A 47.2-point range top to bottom. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. It ended 4-1. The two ratings differ by 113 points. Expected goals sit at 2.62 against 1.46. Neither component contradicts the other: Freiburg leads 1.39-0.94 forward and 1.15-1.27 back. Attack/defence pairs: 1.39/1.15 and 0.94/1.27. Higher rating: the home side. Before kickoff our model had this at 63.6% / 21.5% / 14.9%. It landed. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +34 and -79. Expected shares 73.6% against 26.4% on Elo. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 8.5%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Freiburg comfortably beat Bremen 4-1 on 30 August 2026. Yuito Suzuki opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Freiburg, set up by Jan-Niklas Beste, to make it 1-0. Igor Matanovic added to the tally in the 45th minute for Freiburg, set up by Matthias Ginter, to make it 2-0. Yuito Suzuki added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Freiburg, set up by Derry Scherhant, to make it 3-0. Yuito Suzuki added to the tally 55 minutes into the game for Freiburg, set up by Igor Matanovic, to make it 4-0. Dariusz Stalmach got one back 76 minutes into the game for Bremen, set up by Marco Grüll, to make it 1-4. Ludovit Reis (48') was booked. Dariusz Stalmach scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Freiburg 113 points stronger than Bremen. On current ratings the model favours Freiburg at 62.7% in this pairing, and Freiburg won this one. Freiburg are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.