Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-BL1. Currently 1382 against 1537 — a 24.9% / 24.8% / 50.3% split.
Hoffenheim leads the distribution by 25.4 points over 1. FC Köln. The higher rating expects 62.7% of the points, the lower 37.3%. Hoffenheim is ahead on each half — 1.31 to 1.05 in attack, 1.30 to 1.50 in defence. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -118 and +37. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The match finished 3-2. Spread across the three results is 25.5 points. 50.3% goes to Hoffenheim, the model's lean. In absolute terms: 1. FC Köln 1.05/1.50, Hoffenheim 1.31/1.30 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Point estimate: 2-2. The forecast we stored before the match was 23.6% / 24.4% / 52.0%. The result went the other way. The underlying goal expectation is 2.03 for 1. FC Köln, 2.65 for Hoffenheim. 155 points of rating separation. No scoreline stands out; 2-2 only leads on 6.7%. Behind them are 38 and 37 rated matches. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
1. FC Köln edged past Hoffenheim 3-2 on 29 August 2026. Adam Daghim opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Hoffenheim, set up by Bambase Conte, to make it 1-0. Said El Mala levelled it 51 minutes into the game for 1. FC Köln to make it 1-1. Hoffenheim regained the lead through Ozan Kabak 67 minutes into the game, set up by Vladimir Coufal, to make it 2-1. Thijs Dallinga levelled it 72 minutes into the game for 1. FC Köln, set up by Linton Maina, to make it 2-2. Thijs Dallinga put 1. FC Köln in front late on, in the 82nd minute to make it 3-2. Ozan Kabak (83') and Max Moerstedt (90') were booked. Thijs Dallinga scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings make Hoffenheim clearly the stronger side, by 155 rating points over 1. FC Köln, even though it was 1. FC Köln who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives 1. FC Köln only a 24.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.