Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 3-2 in comp-fd-BL1. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1689 and 1408 — 281 points — for a 80.1% / 15.9% / 4.1% split.
84.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Rating separation comes to 281 points. Both components point the same way, toward Dortmund: 1.49 to 0.84 going forward, 0.86 to 1.46 going back. The leading outcome clears the second by 64.2 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Final score: 2-0. No scoreline stands out; 3-0 only leads on 8.4%. Its point estimate is 3-0. The ratings draw on 48 and 38 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Higher rating: the home side. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +189 and -92. The three results cover 76.0 points. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 71.8% / 19.1% / 9.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The xG line reads 3.23 to 0.97. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Attack/defence pairs: 1.49/0.86 and 0.84/1.46. The model's preferred outcome is Dortmund at 80.1%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Dortmund beat HSV 2-0 on 29 August 2026. Sehrou Guirassy opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Dortmund, set up by Konstantinos Karetsas, to make it 1-0. Ioannis Konstantelias added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Dortmund, set up by Maximilian Beier, to make it 2-0. Albert Sambi Lokonga (21') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Dortmund 281 points stronger than HSV. On current ratings the model favours Dortmund at 80.1% in this pairing, and Dortmund won this one. Dortmund's current recorded form ends with 7 consecutive wins in Bundesliga 2025/26, Bundesliga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.