Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-BL1. Currently 1546 against 1422 — a 64.1% / 21.4% / 14.5% split.
Raw profiles are 1.40 and 1.16 against 0.94 and 1.38. Distance between the ratings: 124 points, wide on this scale. xG: 2.88 to 1.47. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +46 and -78. Result on the day: 3-0. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is RB Leipzig at 64.1%. RB Leipzig is ahead on each half — 1.40 to 0.94 in attack, 1.16 to 1.38 in defence. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 7.9%. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 62.0% / 22.0% / 16.1%. It landed. Someone wins 78.6% of the time by this model. Higher rating: the home side. Outcomes span 49.6 points. RB Leipzig holds a 42.7-point edge on the next outcome. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 39 and 37 matches. The higher rating expects 74.8% of the points, the lower 25.2%.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
RB Leipzig comfortably beat M'gladbach 3-0 on 29 August 2026. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have RB Leipzig 124 points stronger than M'gladbach. On current ratings the model favours RB Leipzig at 64.1% in this pairing, and RB Leipzig won this one. M'gladbach's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats.