On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 9-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 4-2 in comp-fd-BL1. The present numbers are 1873 against 1590, and the model turns that into 80.2% / 15.8% / 4.0%.
Rating separation comes to 283 points. Both components point the same way, toward Bayern: 2.70 to 1.47 going forward, 0.93 to 1.23 going back. Neither figure is thin: 51 and 38 matches respectively sit behind them. Attack/defence pairs: 2.70/0.93 and 1.47/1.23. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Expected goals sit at 4.91 against 1.86. Bayern carries the largest share, 80.2%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 88.1% to 11.9%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +373 and +90. Bayern sits 64.4 points above the next most likely result. The three results cover 76.2 points. Win-or-lose totals 84.2%; the draw takes the rest. Its rounded call is 4-1. Flat distribution — 4-1 tops it at just 5.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 0. The forecast we stored before the match was 75.3% / 17.8% / 6.9%. It landed. Result on the day: 5-1. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Bayern overwhelmed Stuttgart 5-1 on 28 August 2026. Dayot Upamecano opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Bayern, set up by Joshua Kimmich, to make it 1-0. Josha Vagnoman levelled it 52 minutes into the game for Stuttgart to make it 1-1. Bayern regained the lead through Michael Olise 55 minutes into the game, set up by Joshua Kimmich, to make it 2-1. Josha Vagnoman (an own goal) added to the tally 58 minutes into the game for Bayern to make it 3-1. Aleksandar Pavlović added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Bayern, set up by Ismael Saibari, to make it 4-1. Luis Díaz added to the tally in the 92nd minute for Bayern, set up by Ismael Saibari, to make it 5-1. Julian Chabot (62'), Finn Jeltsch (68'), Min-Jae Kim (81') and Grischa Prömel (90') were booked. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Bayern at 80.2% in this pairing, and Bayern won this one. Bayern are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Champions League 2025/26, Bundesliga 2025/26, Bundesliga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.