Deportivo 2–1 Osasuna: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

It landed.

Current ratings

1543against1424

A 119-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Deportivo1.91

Osasuna1.28

Expected share of the points

01
7 meetings sit in the record, first in 2010, aggregate 8-6. The latest was 2021, 1-2 in Copa del Rey. The present numbers are 1543 against 1424, and the model turns that into 63.5% / 21.6% / 15.0%.
02
Neither figure is thin: 255 and 50 matches respectively sit behind them. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 61.8% / 22.0% / 16.2%. That call matched the result. The match finished 2-1. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Someone wins 78.5% of the time by this model. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Between best and worst outcome there is 48.5 points of daylight. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.91 and 1.28. Deportivo holds both halves of the profile — 1.05 against 1.02 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.22 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. First to second is a 41.9-point step, Deportivo over the draw. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The rating gap itself is 119 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 0.93 against 1.02 and 1.22. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.1% — not a strong call. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +43 and -76.
03
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Deportivo edged past Osasuna 2-1 on 2 November 2026.

Before the match

Deportivo came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six. On 29 October, Deportivo recorded a 3-0 win visiting Auriense.

Copa del Rey, 29 October brought an away meeting with Auriense; Deportivo won 3-0, a return of three goals scored and zero conceded. Deportivo visited Atleti on 24 October (La Liga) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. Levante travelled to face Deportivo (La Liga) on 16 October. For Deportivo, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-3 was Deportivo's result against Real Sociedad on 11 October (La Liga), playing away from home; Deportivo lost, with two scored to three conceded. The 20 September fixture (La Liga) paired Deportivo with Real Betis. Deportivo drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.

Deportivo stood 13th in the results-based La Liga table before kickoff, with 11 points from ten matches.

Osasuna's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 11 scored and 8 conceded. Latest: a 6-0 win away to Atletico Calatayud on 29 October.

Osasuna visited Atletico Calatayud on 29 October (Copa del Rey) and won 6-0; their goals totalled six, compared with zero conceded. Sevilla FC hosted Osasuna (La Liga) on 26 October. For Osasuna, the score was 0-2: zero goals scored, two allowed. 2-0 was Osasuna's result against Santander on 18 October (La Liga), playing at home; Osasuna won, with two scored to zero conceded. The 11 October fixture (La Liga) paired Osasuna with Real Betis. Osasuna lost 2-5 away from home, netting two goals while conceding five. Playing at home against Rayo Vallecano (La Liga), Osasuna finished 1-1 on 19 September. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition.

Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Osasuna 15th after ten matches and 11 points.

Previous meetings in our records: a 2-1 away win for Osasuna on 16 December 2021 and a 2-2 draw at Osasuna on 30 April 2017.

After the match

Ante Budimir opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Osasuna, set up by Moi Gómez, to make it 1-0. Mario Soriano levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Deportivo, set up by Luismi Cruz, to make it 1-1. Nsongo Tonfack put Deportivo in front late on, in the 87th minute to make it 2-1. Moi Gómez (35'), Catena (63'), Abel Bretones (81') and Kike Barja (84') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Deportivo 119 points stronger than Osasuna. Deportivo's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 63.5% for a win in this pairing. Deportivo made four changes. Osasuna: four yellow cards. Osasuna made five changes. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. The winners, Deportivo, had been behind.