Prior record: 2-5-11 across 18 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in La Liga. History aside, the live ratings of 1478 and 1619 drive a 26.6% / 25.3% / 48.1% distribution.
2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.56 and 1.80. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Spread across the three results is 22.8 points. Attack/defence pairs: 1.03/0.99 and 1.34/1.02. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.8%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 45 and 62 matches. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 29.9% / 26.3% / 43.8%. It landed. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Played and finished 1-2. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -22 and +119. Ratings sit 141 apart. The higher rating expects 60.8% of the points, the lower 39.2%. Someone wins 74.7% of the time by this model. Top of the distribution: Atleti, 48.1%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.34 to 1.03 says Atleti, 0.99 to 1.02 says Alavés. Atleti leads the distribution by 21.5 points over Alavés.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Alavés's previous five results comprised two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Athletic were their latest opponents, away on 19 September: a 0-0 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-2 at home to Osasuna on 6 September.
Against Athletic in La Liga, Alavés scored zero and conceded zero on 19 September; the away from home result was 0-0. Alavés's at home game on 15 September (La Liga) ended 0-1 against Valencia, with zero goals for and one against. On 12 September, Santander faced Alavés in La Liga: Alavés lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. La Liga, 6 September brought a home meeting with Osasuna; Alavés won 5-2, a return of five goals scored and two conceded. Alavés hosted Villarreal on 28 August (La Liga) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded.
11 points in seven matches put Alavés 6th in the pre-match results-based La Liga standings.
Atleti: three wins and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, six conceded. Real Madrid were their latest opponents, at home on 20 September: a 2-1 win; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Osasuna on 16 September.
Atleti hosted Real Madrid on 20 September (La Liga) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. Osasuna travelled to face Atleti (La Liga) on 16 September. For Atleti, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Atleti's result against Real Sociedad on 13 September (La Liga), playing away from home; Atleti won, with three scored to zero conceded. The 9 September fixture (Champions League) paired Atleti with Liverpool. Atleti lost 1-2 away from home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing away from home against Athletic (La Liga), Atleti finished 0-3 on 5 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against three from the opposition.
Before kickoff, La Liga's results-based standings placed Atleti 2nd after seven matches and 16 points.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-0 home win for Atleti on 18 January and a 1-1 draw at Alavés on 30 August 2025.
After the match
Atleti edged past Alavés 2-1 on 10 October 2026. Alejandro Grimaldo opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for Atleti, set up by Jonathan David, to make it 1-0. Lucas Boyé levelled it from the penalty spot 51 minutes into the game for Alavés to make it 1-1. Atleti regained the lead through Christian Romero late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Álex Baena, to make it 2-1. Ángel Pérez (61') was sent off. Ademola Lookman (45'), Robin Le Normand (45') and Johnny (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Atleti 141 points stronger than Alavés. Atleti's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2025/26 La Liga, the 2026/27 La Liga and the 2026/27 Champions League. one red card went to Alavés. Alavés: five substitutions. Atleti: three yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Atleti. Álex Baena provided an assist following entry for Atleti in the 46th minute.