Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 4-2 in comp-fd-PD. History aside, the live ratings of 1457 and 1492 drive a 40.9% / 26.9% / 32.2% distribution.
Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/1.08 and 1.04/0.96. The match finished 0-0. Alavés holds both halves of the profile — 1.04 against 0.90 for scoring, 0.96 against 1.08 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals sit at 1.29 against 1.52. Athletic sits 8.7 points above the next most likely result. 35 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The model's preferred outcome is Athletic at 40.9%. The higher-rated side expects 45.7% of the points; the other side 54.3%. The model gives 73.1% to someone winning. The forecast we stored before the match was 38.9% / 27.4% / 33.7%. The match did not follow it. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.8%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Most and least likely outcomes are 14.0 points apart. Versus the 1500 seed: -43 and -8. Point estimate: 1-1. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 52 and 44 rated matches respectively.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.