Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 1-0-1 from Real Betis's side on wins, 4-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PD. The present numbers are 1620 against 1442, and the model turns that into 70.4% / 19.5% / 10.1%.
70.4% goes to Real Betis, the model's lean. Someone wins 80.5% of the time by this model. Real Betis leads the distribution by 50.9 points over the draw. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 17.6% — 0-0 is next at 13.4%. The higher rating expects 80.2% of the points, the lower 19.8%. A 178-point spread sits between the two figures. Each side owns one half of the argument — Real Betis the scoring rate at 1.16, Getafe the conceding rate at 0.77. The higher rating belongs to the home side. In absolute terms: Real Betis 1.16/0.93, Getafe 0.56/0.77 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 1-0. Both figures rest on decent samples, 45 and 42 matches. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The three results cover 60.3 points. The xG line reads 1.31 to 0.69.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Real Betis edged past Getafe 1-0 on 17 September 2026. Abdessamad Ezzalzouli opened the scoring 48 minutes into the game for Real Betis, set up by Troy Parrott, to make it 1-0. Mario Martin (87') was sent off. Pepe Bordalás (19'), Ángel Ortiz (24'), Davinchi (25'), Mario Martin (53'), Nemanja Gudelj (70') and Sebastián Boselli (74') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Real Betis 178 points stronger than Getafe. On current ratings the model favours Real Betis at 70.4% in this pairing, and Real Betis won this one. Real Betis are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.