Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 2-0-0 in Atleti's favour on wins, 3-1 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PD. History aside, the live ratings of 1605 and 1395 drive a 73.8% / 18.4% / 7.9% distribution.
Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 64.0% / 21.4% / 14.6%. That call matched the result. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. 2-1 leads the scorelines at 9.6% — not a strong call. Its rounded call is 2-1. Raw profiles are 1.33 and 1.04 against 0.79 and 1.20. A 55.4-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Most and least likely outcomes are 65.9 points apart. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 61 and 45 matches. Expected goals come out at 2.37 to 1.11. Atleti's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 83.0%. Neither component contradicts the other: Atleti leads 1.33-0.79 forward and 1.04-1.20 back. Top of the distribution: Atleti, 73.8%. Higher rating: the home side. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The two ratings differ by 210 points. Versus the 1500 seed: +105 and -105.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Atleti overwhelmed Osasuna 4-0 on 16 September 2026. Jonathan David opened the scoring in the 24th minute for Atleti to make it 1-0. Kang-in Lee added to the tally 54 minutes into the game for Atleti, set up by Jonathan David, to make it 2-0. Robin Le Normand added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Atleti to make it 3-0. Álex Baena added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Atleti, set up by Johnny, to make it 4-0. Ademola Lookman (50'), Rubén García (86') and Abel Bretones (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Atleti 210 points stronger than Osasuna. On current ratings the model favours Atleti at 73.8% in this pairing, and Atleti won this one.