Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-PD. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1492 and 1476 — 16 points — for a 48.8% / 25.2% / 26.0% split.
Played and finished 0-1. Ratings sit 16 apart. The higher rating expects 61.5% of the points, the lower 38.5%. Alavés holds a 22.8-point edge on the next outcome. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.6%. The result went the other way. Higher rating: the home side. Spread across the three results is 23.6 points. Expected goals come out at 1.70 to 1.10. Top of the distribution: Alavés, 48.8%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Alavés scores at the higher rate (1.04 to 0.85) and concedes at the lower (0.96 to 1.09). Versus the 1500 seed: -8 and -24. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.4%. Its point estimate is 1-1. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 74.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Behind them are 44 and 44 rated matches. The four component numbers read 1.04, 0.96, 0.85, 1.09.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Valencia edged past Alavés 1-0 on 15 September 2026. Luis Rioja opened the scoring 78 minutes into the game for Valencia, set up by Javier Guerra, to make it 1-0. Javier Guerra (21'), Antonio Blanco (21'), Pepelu (45'), Aaron Mayol (52') and Guido Rodríguez (61') were booked. Luis Rioja scored after coming off the bench. Our current Elo ratings have the two sides almost level, Alavés just 16 rating points ahead of Valencia, so on those numbers there is little to choose between them. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Valencia only a 26% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.