2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-1. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-PD. Against that, current ratings read 1501 and 1411, a 90-point margin, and the model splits the tie 59.7% / 22.6% / 17.8%.
Higher rating: the home side. Someone wins 77.5% of the time by this model. 59.7% goes to Rayo Vallecano, the model's lean. Its point estimate is 1-1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Neither figure is thin: 44 and 45 matches respectively sit behind them. A 90-point spread sits between the two figures. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rayo Vallecano leads the distribution by 37.1 points over the draw. Attack/defence pairs: 0.95/1.09 and 0.88/1.09. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 57.7% / 23.1% / 19.3%. It landed. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.7%. Elo expected shares: 70.9% and 29.1%. It ended 2-1. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +1 and -89. Between best and worst outcome there is 41.9 points of daylight. There is no trade-off to weigh: Rayo Vallecano scores at the higher rate (0.95 to 0.88) and concedes at the lower (1.09 to 1.09).
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Rayo Vallecano edged past Espanyol 2-1 on 15 September 2026. Álvaro García opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Rayo Vallecano, set up by Pedro Díaz, to make it 1-0. Adrià Pedrosa added to the tally in the 26th minute for Rayo Vallecano, set up by Álvaro García, to make it 2-0. Roberto Fernández pulled one back 54 minutes into the game for Espanyol, set up by Coarasa, to make it 1-2. Omar El Hilali (90') was sent off. Unai López (45'), Marcos Fernández (63'), Georgiy Tsitaishvili (67'), Pathé Ciss (70'), Gnangoro Bouare (80') and Alexandre Alemão (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Rayo Vallecano are 90 points stronger than Espanyol. On current ratings the model favours Rayo Vallecano at 59.7% in this pairing, and Rayo Vallecano won this one.