On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-1 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-PD. Against that, current ratings read 1457 and 1444, a 13-point margin, and the model splits the tie 48.3% / 25.3% / 26.4%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. 48.3% goes to Athletic, the model's lean. The tie closed out 1-1. The model gives 74.7% to someone winning. Each side owns one half of the argument — Elche the scoring rate at 1.03, Athletic the conceding rate at 1.08. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The three results cover 23.0 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.2%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -43 and -56. Rounded, that is 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.90, 1.08, 1.03, 1.31. Logged in advance of kickoff — 45.5% / 25.9% / 28.6%. The result went the other way. Neither figure is thin: 52 and 43 matches respectively sit behind them. Expected goals sit at 1.76 against 1.49. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Athletic's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.0%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Athletic and Elche drew 1-1 on 12 September 2026. Facundo Buonanotte opened the scoring from the penalty spot 50 minutes into the game for Elche to make it 1-0. Iñaki Williams levelled it 79 minutes into the game for Athletic, set up by Álex Berenguer, to make it 1-1. Federico Redondo (56'), Abiel Osorio (75'), Álex Berenguer (81') and Beñat Gerenabarrena (81') were booked. Athletic are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.