The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Levante, 2 to Barça, 0 drawn, 2-6 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-PD. History aside, the live ratings of 1455 and 1808 drive a 7.1% / 17.9% / 75.0% distribution.
Logged in advance of kickoff — 12.3% / 20.5% / 67.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Expected goals come out at 1.18 to 3.77. Barça is ahead on each half — 2.14 to 1.06 in attack, 0.75 to 1.31 in defence. The two ratings differ by 353 points. Versus the 1500 seed: -45 and +308. Most and least likely outcomes are 67.9 points apart. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 16.0% to 84.0%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 43 and 57 matches. 1-3 leads the scorelines at 7.5% — not a strong call. Final score: 2-4. No scoreline clear 8% individually. 82.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Point estimate: 1-3. The higher rating belongs to the away side. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Barça sits 57.1 points above the next most likely result.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Barça beat Levante 4-2 on 13 September 2026. Gerard Martín (45') and Hugo Sotelo (45') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Barça 353 points stronger than Levante. On current ratings the model favours Barça at 75% in this pairing, and Barça won this one. Barça's current recorded form ends with 8 consecutive wins in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.