On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-3 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-PD. History aside, the live ratings of 1395 and 1411 drive a 43.9% / 26.3% / 29.8% distribution.
Neither component contradicts the other: Espanyol leads 0.88-0.79 forward and 1.09-1.20 back. The model gives 73.7% to someone winning. In absolute terms: Osasuna 0.79/1.20, Espanyol 0.88/1.09 on attack and defence. The higher rating expects 43.0% of the points, the lower 57.0%. A 16-point difference on the rating scale. Osasuna sits 14.1 points above the next most likely result. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.2%. Final score: 0-2. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The away side is rated higher. Its rounded call is 1-1. The ratings draw on 45 and 45 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Spread across the three results is 17.6 points. Versus the 1500 seed: -105 and -89. The underlying goal expectation is 1.29 for Osasuna, 1.43 for Espanyol. The model's preferred outcome is Osasuna at 43.9%. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 50.9% / 24.7% / 24.4%. The match did not follow it.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Espanyol beat Osasuna 2-0 on 12 September 2026. Roberto Fernández opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Espanyol, set up by Marcos Fernández, to make it 1-0. Roberto Fernández added to the tally in the 17th minute for Espanyol, set up by Omar El Hilali, to make it 2-0. Kike Barja (30'), Jon Moncayola (39'), Clemens Riedel (40'), Omar El Hilali (45') and Roger Hinojo (87') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Espanyol only a 29.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.