Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-PD. Currently 1527 against 1620 — a 32.5% / 27.0% / 40.4% split.
Before kickoff our model had this at 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.8%. The match did not follow it. The edge is split: Villarreal scores at the higher rate (1.30 to 1.16), Real Betis concedes at the lower (0.93 to 1.14). Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. In absolute terms: Villarreal 1.30/1.14, Real Betis 1.16/0.93 on attack and defence. Top of the distribution: Real Betis, 40.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +27 and +120. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.0% for the draw. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Distance between the ratings: 93 points, wide on this scale. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 51 and 45 rated matches respectively. By expected share of the points: 46.0% and 54.0%. It ended 1-2. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.0%. Goal expectation splits 1.79 to 1.78. The gap between first and second outcome is 7.9 points, Real Betis ahead of Villarreal.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Real Betis edged past Villarreal 2-1 on 14 September 2026. Gerard Moreno opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Villarreal, set up by Renato Veiga, to make it 1-0. Cucho Hernández levelled it in the 39th minute for Real Betis to make it 1-1. Natan put Real Betis in front in the 43rd minute to make it 2-1. Renato Veiga (84') was booked. All the scoring was done by half time. Real Betis are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form in La Liga 2025/26, La Liga 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.